While we didn’t tip Wright last time out, we did make a nice profit last week as beaten finalist Michael Smith was our Each Way punt at 14/1 so let’s see if we can build on that return.
Dates and Format
The Brisbane Masters gets underway this Friday, August 17, and it’s another quick tournament with the final taking place on Sunday, two days later. This is the very first edition of the event so we have no defending champion and no trends to fall back on as we consider the contenders.
As for the format, this is identical to the one we saw last week in Melbourne. There are sixteen players taking part, eight of whom go through via the PDC Order of Merit while they will be joined by eight regional qualifiers from around Australia.
In the first round, games are the best of 11 legs and we then move into best of 19 quarter finals. Moving on, the semi finals and the final itself are all best of 21 matches. With slightly longer games in the early stages, there is less scope for shock outcomes so when we take all of that into account, can we find this week’s winner?
The Favourites
Michael Van Gerwen starts in his customary position as favourite to win a tournament and the Dutchman can be picked up for Brisbane at best odds of 5/6 with Boylesports. Back in Melbourne, Mighty Mike made it to the semi finals before running into a rampant Wright but while he isn’t dominating the circuit as he has done in recent years, MVG remains the best darter on show.
Gary Anderson also made it to the semis last weekend and after a productive year, the Flying Scotsman can be backed at a top price of 11/2 with BetFred and SportingBet. Anderson’s most recent win came in the World Matchplay where he edged past Mensur Suljovic in the final and he remains a consistent threat at any tournament.
The Chasing Pack
Since winning the World Championship at the very start of 2018, Rob Cross has been largely disappointing across his first full season on tour. Cross crashed out in the quarter finals - effectively the second round - in Melbourne, but you claim ‘Voltage’ for this week’s tournament at a best of 7/1 with Betway and Sport Pesa.
Peter Wright will attract some obvious interest after his victory last time out and Snakebite can be found at best odds of 17/2 before the prices really start to move out. Despite an improved season and an appearance in the final at Melbourne, Michael Smith has drifted from last week’s straight win price of 16/1 to a best of 18/1 with Boylesports.
We saw in the Premier League that Smith failed to get any support from the odds setters after compiling a series of straight wins so once again, there could be some value in Bully Boy this week.
Outside Punts
Behind Michael Smith, we get into the real outsiders and they are headed by Corey Cadby at a top price of 25/1 with BetFred. Despite being a qualifier, Aussie thrower Cadby is ahead of three players who are here on merit.
Raymond Van Barneveld is next at best odds of 30/1 with 10Bet, followed by Simon Whitlock who is listed at a top price of 33/1 with Betway and SportingBet and then we have Kyle Anderson who is on offer at 66/1 with most bookies including Royal Panda.
Now we move into the rest of the qualifiers who all start at 500/1: It would be a huge shock if any came through to win at that price so we’ll move straight on now and consider our options.
Verdict
In Melbourne last week, only one of the eight qualifiers made it through to the next round and Damon Heta was immediately eliminated by Gary Anderson, albeit by a respectable 10-7 scoreline. Corey Cadby is a promising thrower but based on those results we can quickly eliminate all of those eight regional qualifiers and consider who is left.
That process of elimination extends to Kyle Anderson, who is the weaker of the players to go through via the Order of Merit. Anderson was the man to lose to Heta in the opening round last week and we don’t expect him to go deep into this tournament.
Simon Whitlock and Raymond Van Barneveld have the capacity to cause upsets in the earlier rounds but based on form across the season, it’s tough to envisage either man going all the way.
That leaves us with just five players and many will feel that Michael Van Gerwen is due another win. His last victory came in this World Series in Auckland two weeks ago but while he remains an obvious favourite, tournament wins in 2018 have been shared around far more this year than they have in the recent past.
It’s a tough call but for consistency, Gary Anderson is the one who keeps going deep into competitions and he has his fair share of victories as well. Over a long semi final and final stage at 21 legs apiece, he also has the patience and stamina and he is our pick for Brisbane.
For value, the fact that Michael Smith has drifted to 18/1 makes him a tempter as an each way punt once again in what should be another tense and competitive three days of darts action Down Under.
Best Bets for Brisbane Masters Darts 2018:
- Gary Anderson to win at 11/2 with Betway
- Michael Smith Each Way at 18/1 with BetFred